You do write interesting stuff, but I think you are stronger on economics than military. I can't see Belarus (or Russia) using nukes unnecessarily. If Polish forces move onto Ukraine soil, they can be destroyed with conventional weapons without risking tripping a nuclear trigger.
The Russian leadership is very cautious in this matter (thank goodness!!! :-)) in case the crazies in Washington do start a nuclear war.
What is Russia going to do, just let NATO recover its morale? NATO is the existential threat and Russia has asserted it won't stop SMO until America backs off. Losing a conventional war won't be enough. Americans need to see a Tik Tok of an actual nuclear flash to wake them up.
You do write interesting stuff, but I think you are stronger on economics than military. I can't see Belarus (or Russia) using nukes unnecessarily. If Polish forces move onto Ukraine soil, they can be destroyed with conventional weapons without risking tripping a nuclear trigger.
The Russian leadership is very cautious in this matter (thank goodness!!! :-)) in case the crazies in Washington do start a nuclear war.
Thanks. I'd like to agree with you, but Russia has never repudiated this: https://globalsecurityreview.com/nuclear-de-escalation-russias-deterrence-strategy/ and https://warontherocks.com/2018/02/nuclear-posture-review-russian-de-escalation-dangerous-solution-nonexistent-problem/
What is Russia going to do, just let NATO recover its morale? NATO is the existential threat and Russia has asserted it won't stop SMO until America backs off. Losing a conventional war won't be enough. Americans need to see a Tik Tok of an actual nuclear flash to wake them up.