What Does NATO Capitulation Look Like?

What does Russian strategic victory look like?

To look at NATO capitulation, we should first define unconditional Russian strategic victory.

Unconditional Russian strategic victory conditions:

1: Normalizes Russia. Denormalizes post-USSR boundaries. Russia ends its 30 year civil war. Finishes reconsolidation of Russian nationality from fragmented former USSR.

2: Normalizes Russian superpower. Denormalizes post-1991 regime. International institutions have been discredited by their exclusive use as American proxies. Chinese corruption of extant institutions has discredited them in American eyes as well. The UN is dead, except as a tool used by the great powers to coerce opposition.

3: Modern Supply Chain Reintegration: the Russian arms industrial standard is here to stay. Dual use technologies will be the baseline for next generation technology. For example, KAMAZ which is one of the world's premier heavy vehicle builders (https://www.snaplap.net/kamaz-the-trucking-kings-of-dakar/), has come out with a model that is much more competitive than anything coming out of the EU. (https://trans.info/en/the-first-kamaz-of-the-fifth-generation-rolled-off-the-production-line-it-is-cheaper-than-you-thought-127409). War matters again so heavy industry matters. Cheaper, more powerful, more plentiful wins. While the US has spent billions on electric trucks that have reduced value on the battlefield, Russia has built a truck that rivals German and American vehicles at a fraction of the cost (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/25/making-americas-semitrucks.html).

4: Financial Centrality: Moscow will be trading center for non-Western oriented economies. Its financial system has been tested by everything from the Soviet collapse, to the resource curse, to the dollar trap, to sanctions, to crisis after crisis and what stands now is highly credible. The US got its financial credit by paying its debts no matter what. Russia has gotten its credit by running on cash and surviving crises with an intact economy.

5: Military Superpower: By 2014 Russia was no longer a military superpower, which is why NATO felt confident in its ability to defeat Russia via proxy war. As I've proved with copious research, Russia's military is not only back, it's bigger than ever. The consequences of this are far ranging. The Russian navy is growing so quickly, even its Pacific fleet alone has upset the East Asian power balance. China cannot assume brown water naval dominance anymore. In a few more years, Russia could easily flip sides in East Asia, and join Japan and South Korea to contain China without any US involvement. Russian military strength puts economic pressure on China. Either they buy arms from Russia and risk losing their supplier in case of war, or they retool their own industrial plant at great expense and ALSO order enough gear to match Russia. It's an oppressive amount of spending that China cannot match. Europe is in the same boat. If Germany was sincere about its 100 billion Euro military outlay, maybe they too could see 'seven to eightfold arms production increases' like Russia will in 2023. But their political system cannot turn money into military potential. Only the USA will be able to build arms at the same rate as Russia, but our dollar to ruble conversion PPP rate there will be terrible. In that 'goodbye America' song that Russian choir sang, the chorus is 'I can do anything for 3 rubles.' (

) America can't do anything for less than $30 bucks. “You want me to flip that switch? Gimme pension!” And America does not build at scale the arms needed for a land war. Instead of a Spartan elephant versus an Athenian whale, it will be literally metaphorically (ha ha) an American eagle versus a Russian bear.

6: American Neutralization: Russia wants prosperity. As long as America keeps antagonizing Russia, Russia will not be prosperous. Fortunately, the Russians are also sane and recognize there is no defeat of America that does not include a defeat of Russia. Which is why American neutralization is much more important than American defeat. The Russians only need to demoralize us. Unfortunately, Soviet Active Measures against the US have finally reached the destabilization phase, and this in fact is part of what triggered American antagonism in Eastern Europe (insane people in power make insane plans). Russia wants to be left alone. Therefore, they have an interest in America returning to sanity. Sane Americans want to be left alone and leave everybody else alone too (except to do business... come on, we're not going to change THAT much). This is why the Russians are afraid of doing anything too provocative. This is not a sign of Russian weakness, but of intelligence.

7: NATO Dismemberment: The holy grail. NATO is already getting its hardware trashed in Ukraine. I don't care how much Russian hardware they're destroying and I don't have any data stream I can trust on the topic. But I can trust my production figures and Russia is outproducing NATO. Poland is going to 'replace' its tanks with 1000 Korean tanks by 2030? (https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/30/south-korea-europe-k2-tanks-defense-partnerships-germany/) Will there even be a Poland in 2030? Russia will produce something between 1500 and 3000 tanks in 2023. The USA's tank factory is barely operational. At a certain point, there will be no more offensive NATO hardware available to Ukraine and NATO countries will all hoard their remaining weaponry. But Russia is not going to stop until it is on the border with Poland. Before that even happens, Poland will take some offensive action. That's what's going to lead to Belarus nuking a Polish formation and NATO being confronted with the choice to keep its credibility and nuke Belarus. But that will surely entail Belarus then nuking large numbers of NATO countries in a second strike. But since Russia is NATO's 'real' enemy, maybe they should target Russia? There will be too much confusion and nobody will act fast and then panic will set in and that will be the sign that Russia can invade Lithuania. Maybe even Poland and they graft it on to a greater Belarus, so Belarus can be Russia's tripwire state. NATO could also just do a total retaliatory strike against Russia and hope they wipe out the whole place, but they're triflers. They have no intention of dying in this war, so they have no intention of a nuclear exchange. NATO and the West is controlled by greedy psychopaths, and psychopaths want to live. NATO tried to shatter Russia's morale and collapse its state. Failed. Now it's Russia's turn to shatter NATO's morale. How's it working? Pretty good I'd say. France is burning, America is run by clowns, Britain wants its empire back, Germany is convulsing... and Poland is demanding everybody die to defend it from Russia. Yeah right!

So NATO capitulation involves a few phases and all involve Belarus:

Belarus As Proxy War Weapon Against NATO

Polish Scenario:

1. Military defeat of Ukraine.

2. Polish attack to occupy Ukraine.

3. Belarus counterattacks with de-escalatory nukes targeting Polish military formations on Ukrainian soil.

4. NATO countries back away from Poland.

5. Poland attacks Belarus.

6. Russia counterattacks & crushes Poland.

Lithuania Scenario:

1. Military defeat of Ukraine.

2. NATO pretends nothing happened.

3. Belarus attacks Lithuania.

4. If NATO does nothing, it's over. If NATO attacks Belarus, see Polish Scenario.

I don't see other scenarios playing out in Eastern Europe. Germany is frozen. France is in trouble. Italy is sympathetic to Russia. The DC clown gang might try something erratic, but I don't see us surviving those scenarios, so I'm going to ignore them. And I also think they're chickens so they will try to deescalate as they see their own asses on the line.

Panic and inaction will be the sign that NATO is done. A follow up attack on Lithuania will prove it's done. NATO won't admit it lost. It will become more of an unreliable gang than an alliance. Eventually, it will just dissolve into meaninglessness.

Short Term Consequences: The West will ignore the war's result until they can't anymore. Evil Russia will be blamed, while American scapegoats are found. European nationalism will surge. Eastern Europe will be under the sway of Russia. Poland will be dismembered. Hungary will be empowered. France will collapse. Germany will convulse.

Medium Term Consequences: It will be a bad time to be a 'passport' European. The smarter ones will migrate. The stubborn ones will agitate. This will make European nationalism stronger and something resembling old fashioned European military states will form. Italy might surprise us all. France will probably get a military government. France is particularly vulnerable to this, because the French have kept most of France's major institutions mostly ethnically French. What are they going to do? Let Muslims control their nuclear weapons? No way! So a coup it is then. America will be isolationist while it sorts itself out. Germany will try to carry on as normal, but be squeezed strategically on all sides. It will want to trade with Russia/China, but is too compromised to do so by EU/NATO. Not sure what will happen there.

Long Term Consequences: European wars return and states with false sovereignty will be absorbed by their bigger neighbors. Benelux and Scandinavia will join with a German trade/security bloc because the alternatives will be worse for all involved, including Germany. Anyone that hasn't picked a team will have to pick one. It will be a very bad idea to be non-ethnic European and live in Europe. America will benefit from European emigres.

The post war situation is going to be characterized by currency and security zone consolidation. China is the big loser in the Ukraine war, because global trade is locking up. Germany can't get Russian gas, and is stuck with electricity prices triple its prewar rate. China will need to glom on to Russia and hope Russia creates enough diplomatic space in which China can trade.

Just as the US is essentially militarily invulnerable, Russia will return to that status. That means all military calculus will accept that Ukraine style gambits are doomed to failure against Russia. When NATO considers color revolutions in the future, it won't be Arab spring they're thinking of, but of their bitter and expensive Ukraine 2014-2024 experience.

How many poles in this multi-polar world? Hard to say. America, Russia, and China are the only sure ones. The British post-empire empire (ANZAC)? Maybe. The Japan-Korea trade/security axis? Maybe. The German-centered European security structure? Also maybe. But with the maybes, they each lack something major. This suggests 3 superpowers and maybe 3 great powers.