Seems tempting, right? The problem is, what is the advantage of that escalation? Russia can already get us with Poseidons. Cuba can't export much of value to Russia. Can't apply strategic pressure to the USA. Just becomes an expensive $2b/yr missile base. $2b can buy a lot of espionage.
Russia already has a pool of expatriate Ukrainians to draw upon for espionage assets. They are scattered throughout Europe.
Who is easier to strategically defeat? The USA which IS a behemoth, just a really uncoordinated one--or fragmented Europe? Europe. We all know this.
What direct actions can Russia commit on the USA to give it immediate profit? Anything it does will cost more than it benefits Russia. Direct war with the USA is a murder-suicide.
Knife up our ass: how? Break up NATO. Italy is ready to peel off. Turkey too. Wagner as nerve center for espionage attacks in Europe, using antifa, criminals, communists, and Russian sympathizers, should be able to move destabilization to demoralization in short order. Here's a good one: Russia arms a small country with an unlimited grudge, like Serbia. Here's another good one: Russia arming Greece so it can take back Anatolia from the Turks. Turkey is already alienating itself from NATO, once Turkey is out, then Russia can side with Greece to weaken Turkey. Here's another good one: Russia arms French white nationalists and provides legal refuge when Interpol issues arrest warrants.
I see Russia's political ideology as classic Russian: pan-Slavic, Orthodox, statist; but I also see a new ideology that has formed that nobody (civilized, non-lunatics) wants to talk about: Russia as white homeland. For that to work, Russia will need to side with ethnic Europeans... and it can't just cause chaos willy nilly. So I don't see it supporting Islamists. I see Russia becoming a successor state & refuge to ethnic Europeans after Islamic jihad takes over a major European country... like France. I could even see Russia becoming the patron state of white nationalism. That's a lot of 'knife up our asses.' Think about this: pan-Slavism has limited appeal. Discrimination against Slavs is a Central European phenomenon. But a white homeland is something that appeals to even white Americans. Maybe that's too racial and the better way to frame it is that Russia wants to be home to old-fashioned mid-20th century patriarchal values: ie, the 'American Dream.'
It fits with Putin's strategy of ideological judo. Putin has been working hard to shed Russia's 'lawless' image. Helps that the USA has become legally arbitrary. It takes a long time to reframe a country's 'brand.' Russia has taken a stand against the lawless international order that the USA/UK pushes. All I know is that Russia can't out-produce the west in the long term, but it has a major armament/aggression advantage at the moment. Since the US led system is cracking, Russian aggression will need to capitalize on its battlefield advantages. In war, arms is money, and money is only useful to convert into arms. Therefore, it is to Russia's advantage to keep pushing conflict around its frontier.
It worked once as a way of removing Jupiter missiles from Turkey and Italy. This time it may compel to move NATO back to ‘92 bordes.
Not to mention the panic attack of the US electorate when they experience this kind of threat. The populist Republicans would be all over the issue …
Do you see Russia’s return to Cuba with few hypersonics in tow?
Seems tempting, right? The problem is, what is the advantage of that escalation? Russia can already get us with Poseidons. Cuba can't export much of value to Russia. Can't apply strategic pressure to the USA. Just becomes an expensive $2b/yr missile base. $2b can buy a lot of espionage.
Russia already has a pool of expatriate Ukrainians to draw upon for espionage assets. They are scattered throughout Europe.
Who is easier to strategically defeat? The USA which IS a behemoth, just a really uncoordinated one--or fragmented Europe? Europe. We all know this.
What direct actions can Russia commit on the USA to give it immediate profit? Anything it does will cost more than it benefits Russia. Direct war with the USA is a murder-suicide.
Knife up our ass: how? Break up NATO. Italy is ready to peel off. Turkey too. Wagner as nerve center for espionage attacks in Europe, using antifa, criminals, communists, and Russian sympathizers, should be able to move destabilization to demoralization in short order. Here's a good one: Russia arms a small country with an unlimited grudge, like Serbia. Here's another good one: Russia arming Greece so it can take back Anatolia from the Turks. Turkey is already alienating itself from NATO, once Turkey is out, then Russia can side with Greece to weaken Turkey. Here's another good one: Russia arms French white nationalists and provides legal refuge when Interpol issues arrest warrants.
I see Russia's political ideology as classic Russian: pan-Slavic, Orthodox, statist; but I also see a new ideology that has formed that nobody (civilized, non-lunatics) wants to talk about: Russia as white homeland. For that to work, Russia will need to side with ethnic Europeans... and it can't just cause chaos willy nilly. So I don't see it supporting Islamists. I see Russia becoming a successor state & refuge to ethnic Europeans after Islamic jihad takes over a major European country... like France. I could even see Russia becoming the patron state of white nationalism. That's a lot of 'knife up our asses.' Think about this: pan-Slavism has limited appeal. Discrimination against Slavs is a Central European phenomenon. But a white homeland is something that appeals to even white Americans. Maybe that's too racial and the better way to frame it is that Russia wants to be home to old-fashioned mid-20th century patriarchal values: ie, the 'American Dream.'
It fits with Putin's strategy of ideological judo. Putin has been working hard to shed Russia's 'lawless' image. Helps that the USA has become legally arbitrary. It takes a long time to reframe a country's 'brand.' Russia has taken a stand against the lawless international order that the USA/UK pushes. All I know is that Russia can't out-produce the west in the long term, but it has a major armament/aggression advantage at the moment. Since the US led system is cracking, Russian aggression will need to capitalize on its battlefield advantages. In war, arms is money, and money is only useful to convert into arms. Therefore, it is to Russia's advantage to keep pushing conflict around its frontier.