The so-called missile experts can’t count or think you’re too stupid to trust yourself.
Yes, there are two camps of them. One is an idiot. The other thinks you are an idiot.
Yes, they think you’re going to be gaslit by an AI telling you your memory is false.
This is the purpose behind writing new articles that blatantly contradict historical articles and evidence. Research? Who does that? Ask a robot.
This only works on the stupids. Not on people who actually remember things. You’re here because you trust your memory more than a narrative.
Let’s start with facts, so you can follow my reasoning:
PATRIOT Firing Doctrine says to fire 2-3 seconds after the first.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/space/systems/patriot-ac-3-iote.htm
ONLY IN 2026 did Ukraine say it stopped firing 2 shots per incoming missile to conserve ammunition.
According to the New York Times which by the way accused Archive.org of being a ‘bot’ but really because they don’t want to be caught in more lies they can’t edit their way out of https://web.archive.org/web/20260000000000*/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/06/world/europe/ukraine-russia-patriot-air-defense.html
There was a max of 650 Patriot Missiles shipped to Ukraine TOTAL to date:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/71513
MY question is why did nobody note back in 2024 this math?
I. Deliveries
The Bundeswher claimed all deliveries to Ukraine by 2024 delivered 328 Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
This is the CEILING of delivered missiles in 2024.
650 TOTAL is the ceiling for 2026.
TOTAL PATRIOT MISSILE DELIVERIES TO UKRAINE, BY YEAR AND DATE:
Aug 24, 2024: 350
Aug 11, 2026: 650
https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF12297/IF12297.6.pdf
Pac-3 can go up to Mach 5.
https://science.howstuffworks.com/patriot-missile.htm
https://www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org/defense-systems/patriot-missile-defense-system/
You know what’s neat? The newer, open NATO that likes to start wars published its missile data back in 2015
Oops, I guess someone got serious after 2015.
Oh no! I guess they weren’t serious enough in time!
Wait. Wasn’t 2015 1 year after the Russians already invaded Crimea?
I guess you have to be some sort of pro-Russian to ask that question.
Do they really think Russia wasn’t archiving everything as it came out? So who does it serve to conceal this information? WHY take it down?
Because they are trying to retroactively cover up evidence of their lies and errors. As more scandals surface, they have to memory-hole evidence of their incompetence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_hole
II. Claimed Interceptions
Dealing with the simple claims, the anecdotes that are used to prove a model, we see this crude claim: 6 Kinzhal out of 18 total missiles
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65606385
Oh, cool, right? Here’s even more detail that subsumes that attack with more systematic data:
JAN 2, 2024: Claimed to have shot down 72 out of 99 missiles: 10 aeroballistic missiles X-47M2 Kinzhal, 59 cruise missiles X-101/X-555/X-55, 3 Kalibr cruise missiles
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/kalibrs-kinzhals-and-more-closer-look-at-1704213669.html
Wow! That’s incredible, right? Ukraine somehow was able to get no more than 3 batteries of Patriots in 2023 and 350 missiles and either shot 72 for 100% accuracy, or shot at 99 and hit 71% of the time.
Even more interesting, is the number of missiles they shot down in 2022.
Russia fired 69 missiles and somehow Ukrainian forces shot down 54.
Wall Street Journal Article from 2023 says the Ukrainians were sent patriot interceptors and had to be frugal with them.
Early in 2023 90 or 100 Ukrainians were sent to the US to learn how to operate a Patriot:
Somehow, even before Ukraine had Patriot operators, they still shot down 54 of them in 2022.
Are you counting? We have at minimum 54 shoot-downs in 2022 that are either 100% accuracy, or 54 out of 69. 72 or 72 out of 99.
Singe Shot, Perfect shooting of 72 + 54 = 126 Interceptors minimally used.
Firing Doctrine, Perfect Shooting = 252 Interceptors minimally used.
OR
99 shot at + 69 fired at for 168 total targets.
Single shot = 168 interceptors
FIRING DOCTRINE = 336 INTERCEPTORS!
And are you paying attention to the dates of the articles? Ukraine was supposed to shoot down everything else it shot down in 2023 with the remaining at MAX 14 interceptors?
III. Total Attacks
Oh, but wait, we have even more articles and citations of officials claiming that by the end of 2023, they had shot down 1600 out of 7400 missiles according to Air Force Spokesman Yuriy Ihnat:
These fools from 2024 think that generating a census of data that matches Ukrainian official statements means the data is good and available on Kaggle:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-russian-firepower-strikes-ukraine
Read the end. They literally said that a 79.8% interception rate means Ukraine has a good missile defense system.
SAID: Benjamin Jensen, Director, Futures Lab and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department
AND
Yasir Atalan: Deputy Director and Data Fellow, Futures Lab, Defense and Security Department
Both these idiots can’t count or are liars.
I say LIARS is more likely. Because they say at the end of the 79.8% paragraph:
“Keeping this intercept rate high will require continued Western support for Ukraine.”
They say, “Look, we have data you can corroborate. Every incident reported by our FRIENDS the Ukrainian government are corroborated in the data we study! See? We’re CAREFUL.”
Oops, except HOW IS IT POSSIBLE TO INTERCEPT 1600 MISSILES WITH 350 PATRIOT INTERCEPTORS OF VARIOUS GENERATIONS?
Somehow, green operators were successful?
PAC-1, PAC-2, and PAC-3 systems ALL achieved this result?
And another report said 2429 were intercepted by Aug 24, 2025?
Supposedly out of Total Missiles Launched: 9,590 since Feb 24, 2022 25% or 2429 were intercepted UP UNTIL August 24, 2024
IV. Procurement And Total Line Production
In JANUARY 2024, NATO planned to buy 1000 more Patriot missiles to defend its allies. They were going to MAKE them. Not yet I guess.
So in 2.5 years, they still haven’t been able to even generate this 1000 missile figure. But we have lines rolling:
Ukraine does not produce interceptors to intercept. Europe doesn’t produce them. The USA made 10k since 1976 most of which are earlier generations than the PAC-3. But only 10,000 were produced since 1976
V. Interception Rates
And the US used 2/3 of its pre-2026 Iran war Patriot inventory in the Iran wars shooting down lower tech Iranian missiles:
And even those lower tech Iranian missiles hit a bunch of targets.
Here’s the breakdown. Since Drones are easy to intercept and don’t need Patriots, I’m not including them. I assume non-Patriot systems got them.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-missiles-drones-fired-gulf-countries-2026-03-10/
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: 253 ballistic missiles detected, 233 intercepted, 18 fell into the sea, 2 landed on UAE territory, Cruise missiles: 8 detected and destroyed
Attacks: 261
Intercepts: 241
QATAR: 127 ballistic missiles detected, 118 intercepted, 7 cruise missiles detected and intercepted, 2 Sukhoi SU-24 aircraft detected and intercepted
Attacks: 134 Missiles + 2 fighters
Intercepts: 125 + 2 fighters(likely non-Patriot system hit the planes)
BAHRAIN: 105 missiles destroyed
Intercepts: 105
KUWAIT: 120 ballistic missiles detected, 17 intercepted between March 6-9, no data available before
Intercepts: 17
Out of a total of 620 attacks, the US spent up to 2000 of our interceptors on garbage Iranian missiles. And these were experienced operators of the system firing.
Interceptors Fired, MAX: 2000
Interceptions REPORTED: 488
That looks to be an obvious 4 missiles per interception.
NOW TELL ME HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT UKRAINE CAN SHOOT DOWN MORE MODERN RUSSIAN MISSILES IN GREATER NUMBERS WITH FEWER INTERCEPTORS?
The answer is very basic: the Iran war says the firing truth.
Ukraine has been lying aggressively in order to fool NATO public into believing that Russian missiles are not dangerous. That 79.8% get intercepted.
After all, a couple of American Military Intelligence connected guys said so.
How were thousands of missiles shot down when the only anti-missile system operated by NATO is Patriot? And a max 10k or so were ever manufactured since the 1970s? And that the US spent 2/3 its missiles shooting down Iranian missiles which are inferior to Russian missiles, and that somehow US military and bases were FAR worse at hitting missiles than Ukrainian operators?
This little exercise should show you the degree to which the Ukrainian government is capable of lying. By how many orders of magnitude. You will need to remember this for the article I will publish next.
More citations:
[1]: https://www.army.mil/article/112278/space_and_missile_defense_command_saves_army_money_with_low_cost_zombie_targets “Space and Missile Defense Command saves Army money ...”
[2]: https://www.fpri.org/article/2026/05/scaling-patriot-production-the-industrial-base-crisis-explained “Scaling Patriot Production: The Industrial Base Crisis ...”
[3]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/05/06/iran-us-bases-satellite-images “Iran has hit far more U.S. military assets than reported, satellite images show”
[4]: https://www.technology.org/2026/07/30/how-many-patriot-missiles-the-us-has-left “How Many Patriot Missiles The US Has Left?”
[5]: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-signs-deal-boost-production-missile-interceptor-parts-2026-08-03 “US signs deal to boost Patriot and THAAD missile parts production”
[6]: https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/shooting-down-su-34s-and-intercepting-kinzhal-and-zircon-missiles-why-patriot-missiles-are-critical-and-what-types-are-used “Shooting down Su-34s and intercepting Kinzhal and Zircon missiles: why Patriot missiles are critical and what types are used | MoD News”
[7]: https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-patriot-failing-new-cheaper-useless “New Cheaper PAC-3 ACE Variant May Be Near Useless”
[8]: https://jamestown.org/the-state-of-ukrainian-air-defense-part-one/
[9]: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-06/yb25_summary_en.pdf