Russia's Current Estimated GDP: $6.16 Trillion
GDP Grew 22.75% Since The War Started In February 2022
The Ruble has depreciated 18% on the dollar since before the start of the Ukraine War (Feb 1, 2022). Russia's Broad Money supply has increased 32% in that time. (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/money-supply-m2) When we go farther back, to 2020, we see that Russia's money supply has increased 72% from the start of 2020 through May 2023.
Russia 2020 Broad Money: 50 Trillion Rubles
Russia 2023 Broad Money: 86 Trillion Rubles
Broad Money Supply Increase: 72%
Russia's Broad Money as % of its GDP was 69.9%: (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FM.LBL.BMNY.GD.ZS?name_desc=false&locations=RU). Assuming we keep the same Broad Money to GDP ratio, we get:
Russia 2020 GDP: 110 Trillion Rubles
Russia 2020 Broad Money to GDP Ratio: 69.9%
Russia 2023 GDP: 189 Trillion Rubles
Russia 2022 Ruble To Dollar Exchange Rate: 26.5 (assuming even worse than here: https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/one-trillion-dollars-in-2023-how-74e)
But shouldn't the declining Ruble factor-in? If we assume Russia's Ruble PPP slipped 18% since Feb 1, 2022 and we apply a proportionate decline to our original 26.5 Rubles/US Dollar ratio, we have a 30.68 exchange rate.
Russia 2023 Ruble To Dollar Exchange Rate: 30.68
189 trillion Rubles / 30.68 Rubles to the Dollar = $6.16 trillion.
That's a 22.75% GDP increase over one year! From $5 trillion estimated for 2022 (https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/one-trillion-dollars-in-2023-how-9d4).
This is another sign that as the war continues, Russia's economy continues to strengthen.
John Helmer, in Russia, Why a Rouble worth one cent is a Russian Warfighting Weapon:
https://johnhelmer.net/why-a-rouble-worth-one-us-cent-is-a-russian-warfighting-weapon/
Not sure I understand it all - however all other charts set gdp at $1.5 trillion and yet this cannot be correct because how could Russia sustain military it has?