Inflation Pain Tolerance

Inflation is hurting the US. Imagine how much more it's hurting China.

China can make up all the statistics it wants and they still look like they're in trouble.

China had virtually zero dollar growth since 2021.

China GDP Growth 2022: 5.645%

China Yuan April 27 2022 (6.58893/$) vs April 26 2023 (6.93765/$) = 5.29% decline.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/currency

Meanwhile, the US keeps on growing.

USA GDP / Growth: Q4 2022: $26 trillion, 6.6% YOY.

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-03/gdp4q22_3rd_0.pdf

The US gained about 6.25% on China from Dec 2021 until now approximately. China experienced .275% dollar zone growth.

Could the Yuan retrace back up to 7.4/$? If it does, that's another 6.67% decline. Meanwhile, inflation is really moving in the US. If we keep doing 5%/year, China's dollar economy could shrink another 11% over the next 12 months.

The US could gain another 11% GDP on China over the next 12 months. It seems likely that over the next 24 months the US will grow to be double the Chinese economy growing to almost $30 trillion. Currently the US is a tidy 50% bigger: China is about 66% of the US GDP and shrinking. So from 2020 to 2025 China will go from being 85% of the USA's $ GDP to being 50%. Slick.

Warren Buffett warns everyone not to bet against the USA, but not everyone listens.

Sorry (not sorry) China, you lose.