Estimated Russian Casualties As Of 3/22/2023 at 44k, And Force Multiplier is 8.1818
It's worse than you think...
The Russian 2022 amended budget from July 2022 (https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-10/bp_2210_russianmilex.pdf) showed that Russia suffered 17,000 KIA based off payments to families of dead soldiers. If we extrapolate that figure out, it should have experienced 34,000 KIA total in 2022, and another 10,000 KIA in 2023 through this week (approximately) for 44,000 KIA.
17k KIA is a good figure, because it matches what Media Zona (16,774 killed)(https://zona.media/casualties) and BBC (17,375 killed)(https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-64984414) could corroborate with in public records. In the middle of summer 2022, Russia's ministry of finance said it would stop reporting budget information, right around the time we got financial confirmation of 17k KIA, which suggests the number was accurate. That would match Russia's domestic information control, which is why news can't prove more than 17k KIA. At that tempo, Russia experienced 44k of casualties up until now, approximately.
If Russia has 44k KIA, then if we believe Ukraine's own KIA numbers (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3626014-presidents-office-says-ukrainian-army-lost-up-to-13000-soldiers-since-war-started.html) of 10k to 13k ZSU (Ukrainian Armed Forces), then they have the 'perfect' 3:1 defender ratio. Except we've all seen horrible footage where we can count with our own eyes that more than 10k Ukrainian soldiers were KIA.
Western estimates that both sides have had 120,000 KIA (https://www.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-putin-shock-gains-190000881.html) is contradicted by the death tempo we calculated above for Russia at least. And I have established in my prior essay that Ukraine aggressively lies and its government statements cannot be believed at all (One Trillion Dollars In 2023: How Russia's Military Came To Outspend The United States Part 2)(
).
If we accept that Ukraine's military forces suffered 120k KIA, then Russia has a force multiplier of 8.1818:1 (120k KIA / 44k KIA) x 3 since Russia is attacking and a defender has a x3 force multiplier. That means through a combination of doctrine, arms, and technology, each Russian soldier is 8 times more effective than a Ukranian equivalent.
Don't say Ukrainian troops are worse than NATO equivalents. Tens of thousands of volunteers from NATO countries have served in Ukraine. In addition to getting slaughtered, they also show that Russia isn't going to be surprised when it faces 'real' troops with Western gear. They already are and are crushing Ukraine.
If NATO is serious about putting 300k troops on the border of Russia (https://news.yahoo.com/nato-considering-deployment-300-000-024600132.html), besides asking where they're going to get the magic money to pay for that, we should see if it's even enough to stop the Russians.
If the Russians have an 8.1818 force multiplier over NATO troops, and should have 500k troops ready by May Day / Victory Day, then NATO would need 1.363 million troops to stop a Russian offensive.
Further comment I cross-posted to MoA...
Here's another example from that article of what that paper considers to be true:
<blockquote> The expert is sure that Russia cannot increase purchases of new equipment purely technically. It is produced very little. As a rule, the army simply removes Soviet equipment from storage and modernizes it. For example, T-80 tanks are upgraded to T-80BVM. "Even if three shifts are introduced at the plants, no one will provide them with materials, working hands, equipment, or components."
Given the loss of equipment at the moment, it will take Russia from three to ten years to restore the number of missiles, aircraft and armored vehicles to the February level. If the war drags on, much more. Moreover, technological sanctions can make the loss of modern equipment irreplaceable in principle. "All modern equipment at the plants is Western. Basically, American, European, something Japanese. What was purchased before 2014," says Luzin. Without the supply of Western spare parts and new equipment, production volumes will gradually decline, and weapons will become less modern and of high quality. </blockquote>
Sorry, but I now consider that source of Russian casualty figures to be hopeless compromised.
I suspect that their "estimate" of Russian casualties based on dispersal of Russian budget compensation funds is likely skewed badly. Since I don't know whether a mere division of reported Russian compensation per person actually translates mathematically in to the actual Russian budget dispersal, I have no way of confirming whether their "estimate" is reliable or not. Given their evident anti-Putin bias, I suspect it's entirely bogus.
If someone can determine a reliable way to translate the reported Russian budget dispersal for the first four months of the war into actual physically compensated Russian families, and prove that there are no extraneous financial factors involved, then maybe we could get a reliable estimate. Until then, this estimate is unreliable.
Which means your entire calculation of Russian irretrievable losses is unreliable.
You'll find this interesting.
I am just now listening to Colonel Douglas Macgregor on Judge Andrew Napolitano's "Judging Freedom" Youtube channel:
Putin & Xi have met - NOW WHAT in Ukraine? Col Doug Macgregor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2F0lrdyOhA
Macgregor says an interesting thing about Ukraine casualties...
He says he watched a video yesterday of a Ukrainian brigade moving off-road into a position near a town outside Bahkmut.
The Russians fired one artillery shell into their midst to gauge the accuracy, then opened up with everything they had available.
The brigade was annihilated in minutes.
That's perhaps X percent - perhaps up to 80% - of 4000 troops (assuming the brigade was full-strength which it probably wasn't) annihilated in ONE engagement in ONE day!
Extrapolate that! Because that is what's happening all around Bakhmut, Avdeevka and other places.
This is why I think the current Ukrainian casualty rate is two or three times the 500-1,000/day it was seven months ago. The more bodies Zelensky throws into the front, the higher the kill ratio gets.