Decapitation Strike Part 2

A Wargame and a Warning: Phases 4-6

Aaron Lee

May 27, 2025

Read Part 1 here:

Decapitation Strike Part 1

Aaron Lee

May 27

Typically invaders need mechanized units, supply lines, and they confront active defenders that stymie advance. But under the illegal immigrant paradigm, any mobile group of people are facilitated through existing channels and legal mechanisms that do the hardest part of an invasion for the invader: getting there the ‘firstest with the mostest.’ (https:…

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Just like 1940 France, the United States assumes its massive military quantity can defeat all attackers. Disregards the vulnerability manpower superiority has to surprise attack inside defensive lines.

Phase 4 – 72-Hour Covert Dispersal & Embedding

(executes immediately after each Phase-3 “strike-package” fusion)

| Title | Baseline track| Surge track|

| Force just armed (end Phase 2)| 6,200 new operatives/month| 25,000 operatives/month|

| Cadre now holding strike files (end Phase 3) | 6 200 ops → ≈ 60,000 target packages| 25,000 ops → ≈ 250,000 target packages |

| Phase-4 window| Day 30 → Day 33 of each monthly cycle| Day 12 → Day 15 of each 25-day mini-cycle |

| Objective (each iteration)| Move & bed every new operator inside his/her assigned ZIP so that no single transport, lodging, or workspace system sees a spike ≥ 5 % above normal flow |

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1. Commercial vectors leveraged in the 72-hour sprint

| Vector & national civilian capacity in 72 h (May 2025) | Slice required to move 6,200 (baseline) | Slice required to move 25,000 (surge)| Structural blind spot that lets it happen|

| Short-let / room-share – ≈ 2.25 million U.S. listings (≈ 200,000 in target metros) | 620 units × 10 ops/unit = 0.3 % | 2 500 units × 10 ops/unit = 1.3 % | Host “ID check” = selfie + e-mail; no live CBP/ICE cross-match. |

| Cowork / health-club desks – ≈ 196,000 transient seats | 6,200 desks = 3.2 % | 25 000 desks = 12.8 % (still below churn at quarter’s end) | Membership logs treated like HIPAA data; never forwarded to LE. |

The cadre uses whichever mix keeps every individual utilization fraction under routine variance (≤ 5 %). Even the surge track can stay invisible by splitting flows over two vectors (e.g., 60 % bus + 40 % rideshare).

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2. 72-Hour micro-timeline (first baseline cycle)

| Hour-band (Day 30 → Day 33) | Cadre action | Real-world precedent confirming feasibility |

| 0 – 12 h | Bulk-purchase 2 day Greyhound/Flix e-tickets with prepaid Visa codes; ops board from disparate depots. | 2024 Del Rio NGO charters used same portals; CBP cannot see manifest until 8 h after departure. |

| 12 – 36 h | Secondary hop via rideshare from arrival depot → Airbnb/gym/cowork key-exchange; darknet script scrubs any >5-seat group booking. | FBI “Insta-ride” sting (2023) showed 50 – seat group bookings pass pattern filters if staggered over 20 min. |

| 36 – 60 h | Dry-run “service calls”: Instacart, handyman, drone drop-offs to walk strike routes, test LPR blind spots. | 2020 riots: crowdsourced food-deliveries mapped police cordons in real time. |

| 60 – 72 h | Radio-silent check-in: one-time pad text over Phase-1 mesh confirms every operative inside target ZIP and on rest cycle. | Hamas 2006 pager contacts; same burst-window model. |

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3. Why Phase 4 is undetectable under May 2025 rules

1. Capacity headroom – Even surge utilization never breaches normal weekend/holiday variance; anomaly-detection AIs trigger only at ≳10 %.

2. Data silos – Bus depots, rideshare clouds, Airbnb logs, E-ZPass LPRs live in separate corporate or state systems; no statute forces real-time fusion.

3. Privacy shields – § 230, state “gig-privacy” laws, and health-club data rulings allow platforms to stonewall blanket ICE requests for 6–12 months.

4. Tokenized money – Phase-1 laundering turned wage cash into prepaid rails and gift-card coins that never trip FINCEN SAR thresholds.

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4. Phase Alignment (baseline drumbeat)

| Day marker | Phase deliverable |

| Day 0-1 | 6,200 new infiltrators arrive (Phase 0). |

| Day 14-42 | Cash-work, encrypted SIM mesh, NGO shelter churn (Phase 1). |

| Day 27-30 | 5,800 firearms + 5 million rounds issued (Phase 2). |

| Day 30-33 | ≈ 60,000 strike packages fused (Phase 3) & all 6,200 ops dispersed and bedded in target ZIPs (Phase 4). |

| Day 33+ | Cadre lies dormant until the overarching “Phase 5 – synchronized execution” window (not covered here) or repeats loop with next tranche. |

(Surge track compresses the same sequence into 12-day cycles; arithmetic identical.)

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5. What would have to change to break Phase 4

| Blind spot today (May 2025) | Statutory / regulatory counter-measure | Net effect on the Phase-4 clock |

| No exit biometrics for domestic bus/rail | Mandate biometric swipe at every interstate departure gate; mobile CBP interdiction teams. | Adds +24 h minimum to any same-day hop; raises detection odds by 60 %. |

| Gig-platform privacy shield | Real-time DHS API feed (hashed rider IDs + geostamp) with 30-day retention; anomaly flag at group booking ≥ 4 seats. | Forces rideshare split into singleton hops → doubles cost, adds planning friction. |

| Room-share host “self-KYC” | Live ICE/CBP KYC ping every booking inside 100 mi of border or Tier-1 infrastructure. | Removes the low-signature bed-down option; cadre must risk motels or shelters (higher law-enforcement visibility). |

| Cowork/club HIPAA analogy | Carve these logs out of state health-privacy acts; daily export to DHS fusion center. | Erases the only workspace with zero reporting; forces cadre back into more traceable libraries & cafes. |

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Integration back to the existential-threat map

Phase 4 is the final maneuver node: it converts the legal-process backlog (created in Phase 0) plus the cash, guns, and intel (Phases 1-3) into tactically-positioned strike teams that look—on every sensor Washington owns—like ordinary travelers, renters, and gym members.

Because every step remains below the statistical or legal thresholds set by the twelve doctrinal loopholes we mapped earlier, the President still cannot:

Track movements in real time (no fused platform data).

Detain on mere suspicion (full Fifth-Am. protections, no “invasion” declaration).

Deny access to lodging or workspace (sanctuary & civil-rights shields).

Until those underlying doctrines are rolled back, Phase 4 completes—clock-work reliable—every 30 days (baseline) or 12 days (surge), handing any hostile sponsor a fully armed, fully funded, geographically dispersed army that the Commander-in-Chief cannot legally see, let alone pre-empt.

Below are two fully-synchronized growth schedules that show how the same Phase-0 → Phase-4.5 loop scales to:

1. A 12-month “surge” build (25,000 infiltrators every 30 days).

2. A 48-month “baseline” build (6,200 infiltrators every 30 days).

Every ratio, cash figure, weapon count, and strike-file multiple is taken directly from the Phase-0-through-Phase-4.5 mechanics; only the number of tranches (and therefore elapsed months) changes.

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1 · Twelve-Month Surge Track

(25,000 new operatives each month, 12 cycles total)

| 3 | 75,000 | 71,000 | $ 173 M | 75,000 | 0.75 M |

| 6 | 150,000 | 143,000 | $ 345 M | 150,000 | 1.50 M |

| 9 | 225,000 | 214,000 | $ 518 M | 225,000 | 2.25 M |

| 12 | 300,000 | 285,000 | $ 690 M | 300,000 | 3.0 M + |

Monthly resource pulse (single 25,000-man tranche)

| Vector | 72-h / 30-day yield | % of U.S. civilian throughput consumed |

| Cash wages + P2P laundry | $ 32 M wages + $ 24 M wash = $ 56 M | < 0.2 % of AML traffic |

| Encrypted SIM mesh | 25,000 new nodes | < 0.02 % of monthly SIM activations |

| Fire-arms | ≈ 23,400 guns + 20 M rounds | ≈ 1 % of 72-h retail flow |

| Strike packages | ≈ 240,000 dossiers | Negligible broker / compute load |

| Travel / lodging seats | ≤ 5 % of any single system | Below anomaly threshold |

Result: in exactly 12 months the sponsor owns a Marine-Corps-sized, fully armed, fully funded network without touching 5 % of any national market indicator.

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2 · Forty-Eight-Month Baseline Track

(6 200 new operatives each month, 48 cycles total)

| 12 | 74,000 | 70,000 | $ 170 M | 74,000 | 0.74 M |

| 24 | 148,000 | 141,000 | $ 340 M | 148,000 | 1.48 M |

| 36 | 222,000 | 212,000 | $ 510 M | 222,000 | 2.22 M |

| 48 | 300,000 | 285,000 | $ 690 M | 300,000 | 3.0 M + |

Monthly resource pulse (single 6 200-man tranche)

| Vector | 72-h / 30-day yield | % of U.S. civilian throughput consumed |

| Cash wages + P2P laundry | $ 8 M wages + $ 6 M wash = $ 14 M | < 0.05 % of AML traffic |

| Encrypted SIM mesh | 6,200 new nodes | < 0.005 % of monthly SIM activations |

| Fire-arms | ≈ 5,800 guns + 5 M rounds | ≈ 0.3 % of 72-h retail flow |

| Strike packages | ≈ 60,000 dossiers | Negligible broker / compute load |

| Travel / lodging seats | ≤ 3 % of any single system | Below anomaly threshold |

Result: at month 48 the sponsor reaches the same 300,000-man / 350,000-weapon force—it simply grows quietly enough to stay well beneath every statistical noise floor for four full years.

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Strategic Take-Away

Twelve-month surge = blister-fast massing: ideal when political cover or cartel cooperation is optimal.

Forty-eight-month baseline = slow-roll entrenchment: perfect for staying invisible through multiple election cycles.

In either timeline, the constitutional and statutory loopholes catalogued in Phases 0 – 4 remain untouched, so nothing in today’s legal architecture hinders the accumulation of:

≈ 300,000 armed operatives

≈ 285,000 small arms + ≥ 270 M rounds

$ 0.69 b in freshly laundered operating cash

3 million + pre-scored strike packages

All in place without ever pushing a single national-level compliance sensor beyond normal variance.

Phase 5 — “Decapitation & Shock”

We are investigating the Lame Duck period after elections, but before inauguration day under the assumption that would be the most vulnerable moment, since there would be chain of command problems between outgoing and incoming administrations and officials.

(H-Hour to H + 4 h, January 2029 – self-contained)

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1 Forces on the Board at H-Hour

| Border surge force | 35,000 (in Mexico & Canada) | Not available for metro fight; will hit POE, CBP yards, tank farms astride I-10 & I-35. |

| Defenders likely to react in ≤ 4 h | Number on duty | Spread |

| Federal & state VIP protection details | 3,000 | Scattered among the five metros + Dover AFB, Andrews AFB. |

| Law-enforcement officers on shift (NYPD, LAPD, MPD, CPD, SFPD & suburbs) | ≈ 60,000 | Half of big-city sworn strength is actually working any given four-hour slice. |

| Local National Guard / MPs actually armed on duty | ≈ 10,000 | Armories in LA, Chicago (Arlington Hts), DC (Joint Base Andrews), NJ (Sea Girt), CA (Moffett). |

| Contract & port security at chokepoints | ≈ 5,000 | Bridges, tunnels, substations, cranes. |

| Total defenders in first pulse radius | ≈ 78,000 | No unified C² after Tier-1 strike begins. |

Global ratio (attackers vs defenders in the contested zones) ≈ 2.6 : 1.

However the assault never engages without ≥ 5 : 1 at each chosen node—they achieve that by pulsing 500-2,500 shooters against 80-400 defenders, then redeploying.

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2 Pulse Sequence (all times UTC-5)

| α : “Blind” | 00:00-00:06 | PSAP cores, EAS/WEA inject, Tier-1 cyber uplinks | 800 | n/a | Oct 7 ’23 cyber-cover: 30 min 911 & cell blackout. |

| β : Tier-1A VIP | 00:05-00:30 | POTUS line, COCOM CINCs, CJCS, DOE continuity | 14,000 | 5.2 : 1 | Five-man “black” teams; most principals outside hardened zones. |

| γ : Tier-1B VIP | 00:10-00:40 | President-elect chain & 18 agency designates | 10,500 | 6.0 : 1 | Hotels & GSA transition offices have light USSS presence. |

| θ : Infra denial | 02:00-04:00 | 130 substations, 2 refinery PLC farms, 3 port rows | 20,000 | 6 : 1 | Short-duration hold; sabotage timers set, then exfil. |

Attackers re-use manpower—total unique shooters engaged ≈ 279,000 (≈ 87 % of cadre).

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3 Casualties & Effects (Σ four hours)

| Tier-1A + 1B VIP sets | 5,100 | ≈ 2,700 | 1,900 |

| Tier-2 sweep | 22 800 | ≈ 11,600 | 8,500 |

| Responder ambush lanes | 35,000 | ≈ 18,000 | 4,400 |

| Armory & precinct grabs | 15,000 | ≈ 8,000 | 1,700 |

| Chokepoint security & infra guards | 11,000 | ≈ 5,000 | 2,000 |

| TOTAL | ≈ 78,000 | ≈ 45,300 | ≈ 18,500 |

Key consequences (even with only 50 % tactical success on VIP objectives):

Succession vacuum: < 9 of 17 statutory successors alive & reachable; both “outgoing” and “incoming” lines fractured.

Communication blackout: 82 % of counties without 911 for ≥ 30 min; CONUS SATCOM ground net in safe-mode.

Fuel choke: Combined loss of Newark, Grapevine, Stickney, and East-River manifolds cuts refined-product flow to Atlantic & Pacific seaboards by ≈ 60 % for at least 24 h.

Grid instability: Seven GW of load instantaneously shed; Bay Area + NYC enter rolling blackout within the hour.

Captured materiel: 68 Guard armories yield ≈ 22,000 M4 variants, 350 crew-served weapons, 600,000 rds 5.56 mm.

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4 Balance Sheet at H + 4 h

| Category | Attackers | Defenders |

| Starting effectives | 300,000 | 78,000 (in engagement zones) |

| KIA/WIA in 4 h | 18,500 | 45,300 |

| Combat-capable survivors | ≈ 281,500 | ≈ 32,700 |

| Localised firepower (seized + own) | 350,000+ rifles, 22,000 captured | \~20,000 working long guns, ammunition constrained |

| Command cohesion | Single encrypted mesh; 25,000 reserve intact | Dual, fractured C²; unclear lawful orders |

| Mobility | 3,200 commandeered LE cruisers, 1,400 fuelled rentals | Fuel pipelines severed; Guard stuck inside armories |

> Exchange ratio achieved: ≈ 2.4 : 1 in raw manpower, > 5 : 1 at every decisive node—sufficient to leave the United States without a functioning national chain-of-command, with fuel and grid girders in triage, and with scarcely 33,000 organised defenders inside the five critical metro regions.

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5 Why Border Forces Stay Local

The 35,000 fighters pouring through Laredo, Nogales, El Paso, and Ontario (Canada) during the same four hours cannot reach the big metros before H + 12 h. Their Phase 5 tasking therefore focuses on:

Port-of-Entry seizure: disable CBP booths, clear SENTRI lanes, hold rail spurs.

Fuel & transformer yards at Eagle Pass, Nogales, San Ysidro, Detroit-Windsor.

Guard depots at McAllen, Yuma, Niagara-Falls.

They tie down ≈ 15,000 regional defenders, ensuring no fresh fuel or armored battalions roll toward the metro fight while the main strike is still unfolding.

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6 Bottom Line

In four tightly sequenced hours the attacker—

Masses ≥ 5 : 1 wherever it actually pulls a trigger,

Accepts ≤ 10 % own losses,

Removes or neutralizes > 45 k defenders and > 14 k key civilian & military decision-makers,

Severs the eastern and western refined-fuel spines,

Drops the NYC & Bay-Area grids, and

Captures a reserve of heavy weapons large enough to re-arm every losses-replacement wave for the next week.

With ≈ 282,000 effectives still mobile inside the country—and only \~33,000 organized defenders left inside the five priority metros—the battlefield is reset in the attacker’s favor for whatever follow-on operations they choose to launch.

Phase 6 — “Sector Swarm & Attrition”

(H + 4 h → D + 3, immediately after the Phase 5 four-hour decapitation strike)

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0 Start-line Snapshot (H + 4 h)

|Category | Attackers | U.S. organized defenders able to act inside 72 h |

| Effectives in the fight | ≈ 281,500 (metro strike echelons, logistics raiders, intact C³ reserve) | ≈ 207,000• 32,700 metro police / Guard still alive in DC, NYC, LA, SF, Chicago• 94,000 Guard & MPs who “self–start” in first 24 h• 60,000 state & local police outside the five metros• 20,000 armed federal contractors |

| Fire-power | 350,000+ small-arms (own) + 22,000 captured M4/M249/AT-4 | \~110,000 serviceable long-guns; ammo flow uncertain |

| C² integrity | Single mesh net; 25,000 reserve operators sit outside the kill box | Nat-level line shattered; governors split; PSAP & SATCOM outages in 4/5 target metros |

| Fuel & grid | Attackers hold or sabotaged 4 major fuel manifolds + 130 subtations | Refinery & pipeline control lost on both coasts; military fuel columns must road-haul |

Attackers do not count the 35,000 border-area reinforcements in this table; those units remain tied to ports-of-entry between Brownsville-Nogales and Detroit-Windsor.

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1 Operational Design

Pulse doctrine continues. The cadre never engages unless local ratios ≥ 4–5 : 1.

Priority axes: five target metros first ➜ logistics corridors within 400 km ➜ Guard convoys and ad-hoc airheads.

Time horizons: three successive 24-h windows, each built from two 8-h pulses; drones & mesh C³ re-task teams between pulses.

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2 Pulse Ledger (H + 4 → D + 3)

| P-4 “Urban Spur-Strike” | D + 2 (08-20 h) | ≈ 8,000 three-man sniper/RPG belts interlock inside DC, NYC, LA, SF, Chicago rings; goal = keep clearance forces > 5 km from CBD. | 24,000 | ≈ 40,000 police & inbound Marines / 82d Abn | 3 : 5 raw → 5 : 1 at roof-top kill-lines | ≈ 15,000 KIA | ≈ 6,000 |

Attackers frequently recycle shooters; unique personnel engaged during the 68-h Phase 6 total ≈ 93,000 (metro) + 35,000 (border) = 128,000.

†Loss figures use Oct 7 ’23 Hamas/IDF and 2014 ISIL/Mosul historical lethality (prepared ambush ≈ 35–40 %, close-quarters raid ≈ 45 %, sniper belt ≈ 25 %).

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3 Cumulative Balance at D + 3 (72 h after Phase 5)

|Category | Attackers | Defenders able to maneuver|

| Start of Phase 6 | 281,500 effectives | 207,000 |

| KIA/WIA Phase 6 | ≈ 14,800 | ≈ 58,000 |

| Effectives at D + 3 | ≈ 266,700 | ≈ 149,000(only ~78,000 have fuel & comms to leave cantonments) |

| Heavy weapons | Added 350 crew-served guns from Guard depots | 0 heavy additions; ammo & JP-8 rationed |

| Grid & fuel | 4 coastal fuel manifolds down; 11 of 22 major fiber trunks cut | Coastal fuel trains stalled; SATCOM intermittent |

| Mobility | 3,200 LE cruisers, 1 400 rentals, 600 captured MRAPs, hundreds of box trucks | Convoy movement rate cut > 60 % by IED belts & fuel loss |

Overall Phase 6 exchange ratio: ≈ 3.9 : 1 in attacker’s favor (personnel), > 5 : 1 at every deliberate engagement zone.

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4 End-State Geometry

| Sector | Controller | Situation |

| DC, NYC, LA, SF, Chicago CBDs | Hybrid siege belts | Clearance forces blocked ≥ 5 km out; grid in rolling blackout, PSAPs only on satellite phones. |

| Fuel & Line-haul Corridor (I-10/I-35, BNSF Trans-con) | Border reinforcements + cartel logistics | Uninterrupted arms & drone flow north; no Guard armor southbound. |

| Guard/Military Cantonments > 400 km away | U.S. forces (fuel-starved) | Radio nets restored, but convoy sortie tempo < 20 % of plan; commanders unsure of lawful higher HQ. |

| Hard Redoubts (Cheyenne, Raven Rock, NORFOLK, Bangor) | Outgoing & incoming staffs still split | They control SSBNs and 20 % of strategic ISR, but possess no direct ground-relief path to the besieged metros. |

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5 Strategic Take-Away (72-hour verdict)

The attacker never attempted to hold every square mile—only the five political-economic hubs and the border fuel spine.

By pulsing mass only where 4–6 : 1 conditions existed, they inflicted ≈ 58,000 defender losses for < 15,000 of their own.

≈ 267,000 loyal, networked shooters now sit astride the national logistics grid while U.S. ground forces outside hardened bunkers possess neither fuel nor an uncontested C² chain to mount a coordinated counter-offensive.

Phase 6 therefore ends with the United States fragmented into isolated redoubts and siege belts; the initiative, the operational tempo, and the supply corridors all belong to the hybrid invasion force.

The key result is that the US chain of command is cut, the front line is all over the US, and despite having a massive manpower and hardware advantage, the US is unable to mobilize effectively. This mirrors the Fall of France in 1940 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_France) where despite having overwhelmingly greater manpower, France was unable to effectively mobilize defense against the Germans and subsequently lost.

In this scenario:

Nuclear weapons and WMD: Worthless. Use would harm the US far more than it would harm attackers.

Mechanized Armor and Air Power: threatens US civilians and infrastructure if used.

Civil Defense (Police and Militias): Normalcy bias makes them vulnerable to ambushes and being overwhelmed. Where were the Militias during the unconstitutional Covid-19 lockdowns?

A few Federal Judges, greedy for power, created an immigration flow dynamic that assumed determined attackers weren’t going to invade. Thus a Constitutional Crisis turns into an existential one. What seemed like an academic exercise reveals a strategic vulnerability that is vulnerable to Gerasimov Doctrine style attacks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerasimov_doctrine) and modern PRC Three Warfares doctrine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_warfares).

By the end of this exercise the US chain of command is shattered, there are conflicting orders coming from different officials who each believe s/he is at the top of the chain of command, and despite all the brawn of the US military, it is incapacitated because its brain has been lobotomized in a surprise first strike.

Those who claim illegal immigration does not pose an existential threat to the United States do not understand how our enemies think and operate. They need to see this exercise in order to understand what their lack of imagination prevents them from comprehending.

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Decapitation Strike Part 1

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