Belarus As Proxy War Weapon Against NATO
Inverted Ukrainian Precedent Looks Ugly...
The Ukraine war is an existential threat against Russia so one wonders why wouldn't Russia want to absorb Belarus?
The obvious answer is 'optics.' So they don't look like the bad guys.
Isn't Russia worried about Belarus being used in the same way as Ukraine? A weapon to attack Russia?
What if it's the opposite?
What if Russia is mirroring tactics used by NATO?
Ukraine has been used to salami slice Russia's red lines.
It has proved effective in a number of ways:
- Coup against Russian ally Yanukovych (https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy)
- Depleted Uranium Ammo (https://apnews.com/article/depleted-uranium-ukraine-russia-tanks-a92a4784dfcbd1ff221813154b7f3a8e)
- NATO soldiers (https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2023/02/16/a-year-ago-i-volunteered-as-a-soldier-in-the-ukrainian-army/index.html)
- Genocide against ethnic Russians, just like in the Baltic states where the population declined from 1.7m Russians in 1989 to 900k in 2021. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_the_Baltic_states)(I remember reading about this in The Economist before the disinfo web scrubbed all politically inconvenient information off )(Even if you don't like the citation, it corroborates my memory, which I now trust more than official documents)(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_nationality_law) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_nationality_law) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_nationality_law)
Russia will use Belarus the same way for the same purpose: to destroy NATO.
Belarus has tactical nuclear weapons now: https://www.dw.com/en/putin-says-russia-will-station-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus/a-65121918
When Belarus invades the Baltic states using 500,000 Wagner 'volunteers' only Belarus will be 'liable' by the same criteria NATO uses in Ukraine. When NATO forces counterattack and Belarus uses tactical nuclear weapons to 'deescalate' (https://globalsecurityreview.com/nuclear-de-escalation-russias-deterrence-strategy/) Washington and London will be confronted with a difficult choice: nuke back and risk getting hit directly? Or accept defeat?
Who will counterattack Russia for something small Belarus did?
Even if NATO wants to guarantee it will hit Russia for any actions done by Belarus, that's an admission of guilt for NATO actions in Ukraine, a casus belli.
That logic is fairly compelling, but unfortunately the west isn't compelled by logic. It really doesn't matter how hypocritical the act, the US always says it with a straight face.
Russian nukes in Belarus-> a dangerous and destabilizing escalation.
US nukes in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Turkey-> ensuring European security.